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Sejarah · Development and prosperity

Reading historical data without inventing causes

You quote a figure and then claim a policy caused it, but the table does not say that.

Reading data means stating what the figures show, comparing them fairly and qualifying any link to a cause. A table can show that two things changed together, but it seldom proves that one caused the other.

This lesson is part of the development and prosperity cluster. The evidence-to-explanation planner can help you turn a figure into a sentence.

What is the describe, compare, qualify method?

Describe the figure exactly: what it measures, for which place and period, and its unit. Compare it with another figure, such as an earlier year or another district. Qualify any claim about cause by naming what else could have changed.

Stopping after describe and compare is safe. Adding a cause needs support from the source or from the period details in your textbook.

Worked example: real national figures

The table below uses figures reported by the Ministry of Economy for Malaysia. 1 2

Year Poverty rate Bumiputera share of equity in limited companies
1970 49.3% 2.4%
1990 16.5% not given
2012 not given about 21%

Describe. The poverty rate was 49.3% in 1970 and 16.5% in 1990. The Bumiputera share of equity was 2.4% in 1970 and about 21% in 2012.

Compare. The poverty rate fell by 32.8 percentage points (49.3 − 16.5 = 32.8) over 20 years. The equity share rose by about 18.6 percentage points (21 − 2.4 = 18.6) over 42 years.

Qualify. The fall in poverty spans 1970 to 1990, which matches the years of the New Economic Policy (1971 to 1990), but the table alone does not show that the policy caused it. The equity figures end in 2012, so they cover years long after the policy ended.

A careful sentence: “The poverty rate fell from 49.3% in 1970 to 16.5% in 1990, which coincided with the NEP years, although the figures do not show which policies, or how much general economic growth, caused the fall.”

Phrases that keep a claim honest

Use a graded vocabulary. “Coincided with” says two things happened together, and “was followed by” states an order.

“May have contributed to” allows a role without proof. “Because” claims a cause, so use it only when a source states the link.

For real tables in your textbook, add one sentence on what the table does not show. That sentence signals that you understand the limits of the evidence.

The mistake that costs marks

The common slip is to treat a rise after a policy as proof. It is easy to do, because the figures look so tidy.

Step Wrong Right
Claim “The NEP made poverty fall to 16.5%” “Poverty fell to 16.5% by 1990”
Link word “Because of the policy” “Coincided with”, “may have contributed”
Limit None “The figures do not show other causes”

A second slip is to misread the unit or period. Always note what is measured and in which years before you write a sentence.

Check yourself

The New Economic Policy set a target of 30:40:30 for the ownership of corporate equity by Bumiputera, other Malaysians and foreigners, and the Bumiputera share was 2.4% in 1970. 3 A student reads this and writes: “The NEP gave Bumiputera 30% ownership.” Say what is wrong and rewrite it.

Answer

The student treats a target as an outcome. The 30 in the 30:40:30 ratio was the goal, and the starting share was 2.4%. A careful sentence: “The NEP aimed to raise the Bumiputera share of corporate equity from 2.4% in 1970 to 30% by 1990.” It describes the target and the starting point, and it does not claim the target was reached.

What to study next

The next lesson, comparing aims, implementation and documented outcomes, uses this skill to give a fair verdict on a policy. Then test yourself with the development and prosperity practice set.

If you want a teacher to go through a data question with you, see online one-to-one Sejarah tuition.

Common questions

What does inventing causation mean?

It means claiming that one thing caused another when the data only shows the two changing together. A table can show a rise after a policy, but it cannot by itself prove the policy caused it.

How do I make a careful causal statement?

Use words such as "coincided with", "was followed by" or "may have contributed to", and add other factors the period records. Use "because" only when a source states the link.

Do I need to calculate in history answers?

Simple comparisons are enough, such as stating the increase or noting which year is highest. Read the figures exactly, include units and avoid calculations that the question did not ask for.

If your data answers jump from a figure to a cause, a one-to-one Sejarah teacher can practise describe, compare and qualify with you on tables from your own textbook.

  • Online one-to-one lessons for your child with an experienced teacher.
  • Your first class is a one-hour trial, from RM50. The fee is agreed before you book.
  • Happy with the teacher? Continue with lessons of about 1.5 hours. If not, ask for another teacher.